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Title: Unraveling the missing link of ENSO control over the Indian monsoon rainfall
Authors: Dwivedi, Suneet
Kucharski, Fred
Dept. of Earth and Climate Science
Keywords: Missing link of ENSO
Monsoon rainfall
Indian summer monsoon
ENSO influences
Summer monsoon
Issue Date: Oct-2015
Publisher: Wiley
Citation: Geophysical Research Letters, 42(19), 8201-8207.
Abstract: Using long daily rainfall (113 years) data, clear evidence of modulation of the statistics of subseasonal active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is unraveled. We show that during the El Niño (La Nina) years, the frequency of longer break (active) spells and shorter active (break) spells increases substantially, while the frequency of shorter breaks (active) and longer active (break) spells decreases compared to ENSO neutral years. It is shown that the large‐scale teleconnection through which ENSO weakens (strengthens) the ISMR through shortening (lengthening) of the length of rainy season (LRS) also creates a background for modulation of the statistics of subseasonal spells leading to a further reduction (increase) in the ISMR during El Niño (La Niña) years. Our findings indicate that the “statistics of subseasonal spells” is predictable, brightening the prospect of seasonal prediction of the ISMR.
ISSN: 8201-8207
Appears in Collections:JOURNAL ARTICLES

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