Socio-ecological Systems Model to Study Indian Oil Sardine Fisheries Dynamics in Kerala

Abstract

The collapse of the Indian Oil Sardine (IOS) fishery in the early 2010s has had devastating effects on the livelihoods of thousands of small-scale fisherfolk in Kerala. Previous studies have analyzed the decline of IOS fish populations using conventional fisheries models that often oversimplify complex interactions and assume linear relationships, neglecting the nonlinearity and feedback loops that can be critical in understanding the dynamics of ecological systems. In contrast, our study employs a dynamical systems model to investigate the regime shift of IOS fisheries by capturing the complex interplay of ecological and social processes involved in the system. Our results demonstrate that the stability of the sardine fisheries system can be attributed to both fisher behaviour and environmental factors (upwelling, migration), and highlight the importance of addressing both factors for sustainable management of the fishery.