Burden of COVID-19 and case fatality rate in Pune, India: an analysis of the first and second wave of the pandemic

Abstract

Objective: To assess trends in case incidence and fatality rate between the first and second waves, we analyzed programmatic COVID-19 data from Pune city, an epicenter of COVID-19 cases in India. Method: The trends of cases incidence, time-to-death and case fatality rate (CFR) were analyzed. Poisson regression models adjusted for age and gender were used to determine the independent effect of pandemic waves on mortality. Results : Of 465 192 COVID-19 cases, 162 182 (35%) were reported in the first wave and 4146 (2.5%) deaths, and 275 493 (59%) in the second wave and 3184 (1.1%) deaths (P<0.01). The overall CFR was 1.16 per 1000 person-days (PD), which declined from 1.80 per 1000 PD during the first wave to 0.77 per 1000 PD in the second. The risk of death was 1.49 times higher during the first wave (adjusted CFR ratio (aCFRR)1.49; 95% CI: 1.37–1.62) and 35% lower in the second wave (aCFRR 0.65; 95% CI: 0.59–0.70). Conclusion: The burden of COVID-19 cases and deaths was more significant in the second wave; however, the CFR declined as the pandemic progressed. Nevertheless, investigating new therapies and implementing mass vaccination against COVID-19 are urgently needed